What's Augmented Reality's Killer App?

Kristina Grifantini writes in MIT's Technology Review about Augmented Reality and cell phones, but doesn't really answer the question posed in the story's title.

Researchers plan to offer more than just directions with innovations in software and hardware.

First paragraph: "Augmented reality (AR), which involves superimposing virtual objects and information on top of the real world, may be coming to a phone near you. As mobile phones become packed with more sensors, better video capabilities, and faster processing power, many experts predict that AR will become increasingly common. But in a panel discussion today at EmTech@MIT in Cambridge, MA, panelists will admit that several obstacles still remain and that the "killer app" for augmented reality has yet to emerge."

Is the Singularity A Load of Crap?

Alfred Nordmann writing in IEEE Spectrum seems to think so.

According to Mr. Nordmann "The story of the Singularity is sweeping, dramatic, simple--and wrong". He makes some good points around the acceleration of technological progress. However, his arguments seem anecdotal in nature, and are counter to my own experience working in the world of Internet businesses.

The most common definition of the Singularity is "the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence". My opinion is that this event is inevitable, the question is timing. If one assumes that technological progress continues at a linear pace and not an accelerating one, the Singularity would still occur, just at a point farther off in time.

Read the first portion of the article below, click through for the rest:

BY Alfred Nordmann // June 2008

This is part of IEEE Spectrum's SPECIAL REPORT: THE SINGULARITY

"Take the idea of exponential technological growth, work it through to its logical conclusion, and there you have the singularity. Its bold incredibility pushes aside incredulity, as it challenges us to confront all the things we thought could never come true—the creation of superintelligent, conscious organisms, nanorobots that can swim in our bloodstreams and fix what ails us, and direct communication from mind to mind. And the pièce de résistance: a posthuman existence of disembodied uploaded minds, living on indefinitely without fear, sickness, or want in a virtual paradise ingeniously designed to delight, thrill, and stimulate.

This vision argues that machines will become conscious and then perfect themselves, as described elsewhere in this issue. Yet for all its show of tough-minded audacity, the argument is shot through with sloppy reasoning, wishful thinking, and irresponsibility. Infatuated with statistics and seduced by the power of extrapolation, ­singularitarians abduct the moral imagination into a speculative no-man’s-land. To be sure, they are hardly the first to spread fanciful technological prophecies, but among enthusiasts and doomsayers alike their ­proposition enjoys an inexplicable popularity. Perhaps the real question is how they have gotten away with it."

Click here for the rest of the article

Augmented Reality in a Contact Lens

From IEEE Spectrum

A new generation of contact lenses built with very small circuits and LEDs promises bionic eyesight.

BY Babak A. Parviz // September 2009

The human eye is a perceptual powerhouse. It can see millions of colors, adjust easily to shifting light conditions, and transmit information to the brain at a rate exceeding that of a high-speed Internet connection.

But why stop there?

In the Terminator movies, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s character sees the world with data superimposed on his visual field—virtual captions that enhance the cyborg’s scan of a scene. In stories by the science fiction author Vernor Vinge, characters rely on electronic contact lenses, rather than smartphones or brain implants, for seamless access to information that appears right before their eyes.

Click through for the rest of the story

Life Expectancy in the USA has Increased and Total Deaths have Fallen

From Next Big Future, original post here


The preliminary number of deaths in the United States for 2007 was 2,423,995, representing a decrease of 2,269 from the 2006 total. The crude death rate of 803.7 per 100,000 population was 0.83 percent less than the rate of 810.4 per 100,000 in 2006. The estimated age-adjusted death rate, which accounts for changes in the age distribution of the population, reached a record low of 760.3 per 100,000 U.S. standard population, 2.1 percent lower than the 2006 rate of 776.5. illustrates the pattern of decline in both crude and age-adjusted death rates from 1980 through 2007. In 2007, age-adjusted death rates decreased from 2006 by 2.1 percent for males and by 2.2 percent for females. All of the sex, race, and Hispanic origin groups described in this report showed significant decreases in the age-adjusted death rate in 2007 from 2006, with the exception of AIAN males, who experienced a decrease that was not statistically significant.

Michael Darling at the Speculist rightly points out that these statistics are really for the actual life expectancy of people born around 1929 who ended up in America at the time of their death. Average age of death of those who died in 2007. Back in 1929 the estimate of life expectancy was 58, which was the actual of amount of life expectancy for people born in 1871. So people born in 1929 did 21 years better than those born in 1871. How will those born in 2009 actually do in terms of average lifespan ? Probably a lot better than 78 years. How about the average of the likely number of years of life left for people who are now 40 ? It is a lot more than 38 years because those alive now at 40 have made it past all infant and childhood and early adult risks. If you do a few things right (don't smoke, drink only in moderation, exercise, get checkups and know your family medical history and actively work to prevent or detect your personal risks) then you have a very good chance of making to 90+ years of age even without breakthroughs.

Nanotube Based Super Muscles

Pretty incredible stuff - very lightweight and stronger than steel, but can expand and contract incredibly fast when a current is applied, generating "30 times as much force as natural muscle".

Bionics, here we come! Full story here on Discover.

More about Nanotubes: 9 Ways Carbon Nanotubes Just Might Rock the World

The Army has a New Helicopter Sniper Drone

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2009/04/army-tests-new.html

HULC Exoskeleton from Lockheed Getting Closer to Viability

Nuclear Bomb Powered Spacecraft

I have read at least two science-fiction novels that featured the concept of spacecraft powered by nuclear explosions, but this is the first scientific paper that I have seen discuss the idea, full version can be seen here at Next Big Future.

Who Owns More Cars than Anyone Else in the World?

It's not the Americans, as most would think, we are not even close. Turns out to be the people of Luxembourg, owning 647 cars for every 1000 people. The USA comes in 16th at about 460 per thousand. See the original story here at the Economist.com.

Russian Kleptocracy

Hows this for scary stats:

The government in Moscow estimates the Russian mafia controls 40% of private business and 60% of state-owned companies.

Unofficial sources say 80% of Russian banks are controlled either directly or indirectly by criminals.
Source

Interesting surf trail to follow:
Russian mafia

Chechen Mafia


Murder of American journalist Paul Klebnikov

One particularly disturbing note - as I was doing the research on this topic, I received some sort of malware attack. I don't know if it is related, but I wouldn't put it past either Putin or his mob buddies to set some traps out there just to discourage those who might be digging for info. Not that I'm paranoid or anything.

40 Days of Freedom - the Kengir Uprising

I read today of a fascinating historical event, the Kengir uprising, and am surprised that a movie has not yet been about Kengir. It would make for exciting, dramatic, and ultimately tragic material.

In May and June of 1954 the prisoners in a Soviet prison labor camp called Kengir in what is now Kazakhstan rebelled against their captors and seized the entire camp. They had 40 days of glorious freedom, until the uprising was finally crushed by the authorities.

What makes this especially interesting is that most of the prisoners were there for political reasons, and as a result what they did with their short-lived freedom is nothing short of remarkable. Art, music, and democratic government all flourished during until the end of the 40 days.

Nobel laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn chronicled the Kengir uprising in his book the Gulag Archipelago, which I personally intend to obtain and read soon. One particularly chilling fact from this book - more than 25% of the entire population of Leningrad was sent to the Gulag's between 1930-1939.

I'm back

I have been buried at work for the last month and took a hiatus, but am now ready to roll again, mucho posts in the next few days.

Up first, Next Big Future's summary of 2008's key advances in technology and developments to watch over the next year or so:

Computers, Robotic and Communication Developments to Watch in 2009 and a Little Beyond

DNA/biotech/synthetic biology, nanotechnology topics are here
Energy and transportation

The Science of the Future of War

Book excerpt from Wired:

TODAY'S MOST BRUTAL WARS are also the most primal. They are fought with machetes in West Africa, with fire and rape and fear in Darfur, and with suicide bombs and improvised explosive devices in Israel, Iraq, and elsewhere. But as horrifying as these conflicts are, they are not the greatest threat to our survival as a species. We humans are a frightening animal. Throughout our species’s existence, we have used each new technology we have developed to boost the destructive power of our ancient predisposition for killing members of our own species. From hands and teeth tearing at isolated individuals, to coordinated raids with clubs and bows and arrows, to pitched battles, prolonged sieges, and on into the age of firearms, the impulse has remained the same but as the efficiency of our weapons has increased, the consequences have grown ever more extreme.

The evidence of history is that no advance which can be applied to the killing of other human beings goes unused. As scientific knowledge continues to explode, it would be naïve, to expect any different. As if we needed any more reasons to confront the role of warfare in our lives, the present supply and future potential of WMDs should convince us that the time has come once and for all to bring our long, violent history of warring against each other to an end.

The nineteenth century was dominated by discoveries in chemistry, from dyes to dynamite. The twentieth century belonged to physics, from subatomic particles and black holes to nuclear weapons. The twenty-first century is set to see great advances in biological knowledge, from our growing understanding of the genome and stem cells to, it’s a shame to say, new and expanded forms of ...

Click here to read the rest of the article

New Longevity Drugs Coming Soon?

From Wired.com

Cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, heart disease: All have stubbornly resisted billions of dollars of research conducted by the world's finest minds. But they all may finally be defied by a single new class of drugs, a virtual cure for the diseases of aging.

In labs across the country, researchers are developing several new drugs that target the cellular engines called mitochondria. The first, resveratrol, is already in clinical trials for diabetes. It could be on the market in four years and used off-label as an all-purpose longevity enhancer. Other drugs promise to be more potent and refined. They might even be cheap.

"It's going to revolutionize western medicine," said Doug Wallace, a pioneer of mitochondrial medicine at the University of California at Irvine. "All the things that are common for an aging society, and nobody worried ...

Read the rest of the story

Physics of the Impossible - a review

This hypothetical spacecraft with a “negative energy” induction ring was inspired by recent theories describing how space could be warped with negative energy to produce hyperfast transport to reach distant star systems (credit: NASA’s Glenn Research Center).


This review was originally published in the eSkeptic newsletter.

Tauriq Moosa reviews Michio Kaku’s book entitled Physics of the Impossible: A Scientific Exploration of the World of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation and Time Travel. (Allen Lane/Penguin, 2008, ISBN 9780715999921).

From Science Fiction to Science Fact

by Tauriq Moosa

The horizon of possibility is stretched before us, penetrated by the shadowy undiscovered, terrain of the impossible. Our light of knowledge feebly illuminates a small circle of comprehension, but according to the New York University physicist and string theorist Michio Kaku, there is hope. More than ever, he believes, we are closer to raising our tiny light to shine everywhere to make that which was fiction into fact, to take the impossible and make it possible.

Who holds the world record for travelling furthest into the future? Where did scientists create materials that were once thought to defy the laws of optics? Why is King Kong’s existence impossible? If you are surprised by the questions, Kaku’s answers will surprise even more.

In this highly readable and exciting work, Kaku builds a case for achieving Arthur C. Clarke’s 3rd law: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Kaku shows how the terrain of the impossible, typically found only in science-fiction, is being systematically conquered by science. Force-fields, teleportation, robots, time-travel, and starships are dealt with seriously and on a time continuum: how long until we achieve these. By classifying these various “fantastical” ideas into three different ranges of time, Kaku argues for when we’ll see them.

Class 1 Impossibilities: technology that is not possible today but within the realm of physics. These are possible within a century or two. In this class, Kaku lists force-fields, invisibility, phasers and death-stars, teleportation, telepathy, psychokinesis, robots, ETs and UFOs, starships, antimatter and anti-universes.

Class 2 Impossibilities: Technology that lies on the cusp of our knowledge of physics. These are possible perhaps within millennia or millions of years. In this class, we find faster than light travel, time-travel, and parallel universes.

Class 3 Impossibilities: Technology that violates known physical laws. Here we find perpetual-motion machines and precognition. That’s it, only two.

Kaku is more concerned with how “fantastical” ideas are being rendered into workable methods of science, rather than on how to actually make a time-machine, a teleportation device and so on. And he does this very well. He estimates, for example, how far we must go before we are able to literally “pop” into a grocery store; create force-fields that could create buildings in an instant; and create perpetual motion machines that would grant us ever-lasting renewable energy.

Kaku writes lucidly and with a touch of boyish charm. He seems like a child in toyshop, able to taste all the varieties and communicate his understanding. Each chapter opens with the science from a sci-fi book or television-show. He then translates these “fantastical” ideas into workable, present-day and evidential-based science. If you don’t mind the too-frequent Star-Trek references, Kaku really shine when he traces the history of an idea. In Time-Travel for example, he recounts St. Augustine’s wonderings about the constant flow of time whereby next Wednesday will be the past of next Thursday, just as this paragraph will be the past as you move to the next paragraph, which at the moment is the future.

This Newtonian idea of time as an arrow was overthrown by Einstein. One second on earth was thought to be one second anywhere in the universe. But, says Kaku: “[Einstein] showed that time was more like a river that meandered across the universe, speeding up and slowing down as it snaked across stars and galaxies. So one second on the Earth is not absolute; time varies when we move around the universe.”

This appears to make time even more incomprehensible and incapable of manipulation. On the contrary, considers Kaku: “Time travel to the future is possible and has been experimentally verified millions of times”. Yes that’s right, millions of times.

Who holds the world record for travelling furthest into the future, then? Currently, it is held by the cosmonaut Sergei Avdeyev, who was in orbit for 748 days and “hence hurled 0.2 seconds into the future”. It isn’t much, but astronauts travelling near the speed of light would experience a passage of time dramatically different from their friends on earth. This fits into Einstein’s special theory of relativity; that is, time-travel is consistent with the laws of physics.

So much for the future. What about the past? How can the past possibly fit into the laws of physics? This is a bit more complicated. Kaku lists five ways of time-travelling to the past:

1. Wormhole: You could journey through a wormhole, since space and time are amalgamated in Einstein’s relativity theory. This, however, is a one-way trip.
2. Spinning Universe: If you travelled around (an assumed spinning) universe fast enough, you could find yourself before you left. This would be journeying into the past.
3. Rotating Cylinder: If you walk around an infinitely long cylinder, rotating constantly, you might arrive before you even left.
4. Cosmic Strings: The collision of two gigantic cosmic strings (from the Big Bang) could catapult you back in time, if you travelled around them.
5. Transversable Wormholes: This involves a time machine with two spherical chambers (A & B), using a method of implosion to remove one of the spheres to create negative energy. (You would use the Casimir effect, which means the space between two parallel uncharged metal plates can be used to gain less-than-zero energy, from the removal of kinetic energy.) Using a wormhole, you connect both chambers. You would take a chamber (A) and send it into space, at light-speed. This first chamber (A) would be slower in time. If you are in the second chamber (B), you could immediately use the wormhole to travel to the first (A). Thus you have gone backward in time (from B–A).

This is all within the realms of physics (Class 2) and that is essentially Kaku’s point. And if it is not within the current realms of physics, there is a possibly of shifting physics and not necessarily the technology. He is not setting up step-by-step guidelines on how to create Douglas Adam’s type machines (like Deep Thought and Eddie); nor is he attempting to defend the creation of such things as ray-guns and Deathstars. This might be seen as a fault: How can Kaku rejoice in the creation of a technology that can destroy our planet?

Bertrand Russell once said: “There is no method of securing what is pleasant in science without what is unpleasant. We can do so, of course, by refusing to face the logic of the situation; but if so, we shall dry up the impulse to scientific discovery at its source, which is the desire to understand the world.” We have to take the one with the other — gaining greater understanding of Perpetual Motion Machines could mean an endless supply of energy eliminating poverty, or a fanatical tyrant using it for control.

Like all good science books, Physics of the Impossible should help alter your perception of possibility and (like space-time in the future possibly) bend it.

Save the world, play Superstruct

Check out Superstruct, the world's first massively multi-player forecasting game.

I will be playing, look for Future_Dave, I published the FAQ set from the site below.

Q: What is Superstruct?
A: Superstruct is the world's first massively multiplayer forecasting game. By playing the game, you'll help us chronicle the world of 2019--and imagine how we might solve the problems we'll face. Because this is about more than just envisioning the future. It's about making the future, inventing new ways to organize the human race and augment our collective human potential.

Q: Why should I play Superstruct?
A: Here are some of our favorite reasons: Because you're curious about the future, because you want to make friends and collaborators all over the planet, because you want to learn how to become a future forecaster, and because you want to change the world.

Q: What does "superstruct" mean?
Su`per`struct´ v. t. 1.To build over or upon another structure; to erect upon a foundation.
Superstructing is what humans do. We build new structures on old structures. We build media on top of language and communication networks. We build communities on top of family structures. We build corporations on top of platforms for manufacturing, marketing, and distribution. Superstructing has allowed us to survive in the past and it will help us survive the super-threats.

Knowledge will increase 100 fold by 2050

I just purchased a paper titled "55 Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World" from the World Future Society. It is very worthwhile, below is one interesting conjecture from the paper.

The pace of technological change accelerates with each new generation of discoveries and applications.

The design and marketing cycle—idea, invention, innovation, imitation—
is shrinking steadily. Thus, products must capture their market quickly, before the competition cancopy them. As late as the 1940s, the product cycle stretched to 30 or 40 years. Today, it seldom lasts 30 or 40 weeks.

Almost any new consumer product can be exactly duplicated by Chinese
factories and sold on eBay within a week after it is introduced.

Implications: All the technical knowledge we work with today will represent only 1% of the knowledge that will be available in 2050.

E-books finally suck less

New e-books are being released over the coming months that are starting to provide decent alternatives to paper. Some remaining issues to be solved are slow refresh rates (8/10 of a second) which prevent support of animation and video and lack of color. Color versions are supposed to be availble next year, and video is forecast to be supported by 2012.

The iRexReader 1000 which will be released in the coming months will have options such as touchscreen, bluetooth, wifi, and 3G cell connection.

My opinion is that this niche product for reading books/magazines etc. will become a true convergence device and in about 3-5 years will start to replace laptops for some uses and even mobile phones, assuming the form factor can be figured out, as well as replacing print.

Peter Drucker on Marketing

Jack Trout is a major thinker in the area of marketing strategy and spouts some good stuff in this article on Forbes.com, although he does wander a bit.

Jack starts with Drucker’s conception of marketing and tries to explain how to generate marketing success. I have tried to distill his four steps down into simpler terms below, and have also included Drucker’s quote, for if you remember just one thing from this article, it should be Drucker’s words.

1. Understand your competitors and your positioning relative to them in the customer’s minds
2. Develop a differentiated value proposition
3. Have a compelling argument based on direct comparisons with competitors
4. Do some good marketing

"Because the purpose of business is to create a customer, the business enterprise has two--and only two--basic functions: marketing and innovation. Marketing and innovation produce results; all the rest are costs. Marketing is the distinguishing, unique function of the business." -Peter Drucker

Obama Suddenly Panicked After Gazing Too Far Into Future

Its from the Onion, and is damn funny.

MADISON, WI—Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) fell deathly silent in the middle of a speech on education before the Wisconsin Teachers Union Tuesday, his failure of words reportedly a result of the Democratic nominee's forward-looking tendencies suddenly bringing him a harrowing glimpse of a future world shaped by madness and horror. " click through to read the rest