I just purchased a paper titled "55 Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World" from the World Future Society. It is very worthwhile, below is one interesting conjecture from the paper.
The pace of technological change accelerates with each new generation of discoveries and applications.
The design and marketing cycle—idea, invention, innovation, imitation—
is shrinking steadily. Thus, products must capture their market quickly, before the competition cancopy them. As late as the 1940s, the product cycle stretched to 30 or 40 years. Today, it seldom lasts 30 or 40 weeks.
Almost any new consumer product can be exactly duplicated by Chinese
factories and sold on eBay within a week after it is introduced.
Implications: All the technical knowledge we work with today will represent only 1% of the knowledge that will be available in 2050.
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