Is the Singularity A Load of Crap?

Alfred Nordmann writing in IEEE Spectrum seems to think so.

According to Mr. Nordmann "The story of the Singularity is sweeping, dramatic, simple--and wrong". He makes some good points around the acceleration of technological progress. However, his arguments seem anecdotal in nature, and are counter to my own experience working in the world of Internet businesses.

The most common definition of the Singularity is "the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence". My opinion is that this event is inevitable, the question is timing. If one assumes that technological progress continues at a linear pace and not an accelerating one, the Singularity would still occur, just at a point farther off in time.

Read the first portion of the article below, click through for the rest:

BY Alfred Nordmann // June 2008

This is part of IEEE Spectrum's SPECIAL REPORT: THE SINGULARITY

"Take the idea of exponential technological growth, work it through to its logical conclusion, and there you have the singularity. Its bold incredibility pushes aside incredulity, as it challenges us to confront all the things we thought could never come true—the creation of superintelligent, conscious organisms, nanorobots that can swim in our bloodstreams and fix what ails us, and direct communication from mind to mind. And the pièce de résistance: a posthuman existence of disembodied uploaded minds, living on indefinitely without fear, sickness, or want in a virtual paradise ingeniously designed to delight, thrill, and stimulate.

This vision argues that machines will become conscious and then perfect themselves, as described elsewhere in this issue. Yet for all its show of tough-minded audacity, the argument is shot through with sloppy reasoning, wishful thinking, and irresponsibility. Infatuated with statistics and seduced by the power of extrapolation, ­singularitarians abduct the moral imagination into a speculative no-man’s-land. To be sure, they are hardly the first to spread fanciful technological prophecies, but among enthusiasts and doomsayers alike their ­proposition enjoys an inexplicable popularity. Perhaps the real question is how they have gotten away with it."

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