Hows this for scary stats:
The government in Moscow estimates the Russian mafia controls 40% of private business and 60% of state-owned companies.
Unofficial sources say 80% of Russian banks are controlled either directly or indirectly by criminals.
Source
Interesting surf trail to follow:
Russian mafia
Chechen Mafia
Murder of American journalist Paul Klebnikov
One particularly disturbing note - as I was doing the research on this topic, I received some sort of malware attack. I don't know if it is related, but I wouldn't put it past either Putin or his mob buddies to set some traps out there just to discourage those who might be digging for info. Not that I'm paranoid or anything.
Monday, December 29, 2008
40 Days of Freedom - the Kengir Uprising
I read today of a fascinating historical event, the Kengir uprising, and am surprised that a movie has not yet been about Kengir. It would make for exciting, dramatic, and ultimately tragic material.
In May and June of 1954 the prisoners in a Soviet prison labor camp called Kengir in what is now Kazakhstan rebelled against their captors and seized the entire camp. They had 40 days of glorious freedom, until the uprising was finally crushed by the authorities.
What makes this especially interesting is that most of the prisoners were there for political reasons, and as a result what they did with their short-lived freedom is nothing short of remarkable. Art, music, and democratic government all flourished during until the end of the 40 days.
Nobel laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn chronicled the Kengir uprising in his book the Gulag Archipelago, which I personally intend to obtain and read soon. One particularly chilling fact from this book - more than 25% of the entire population of Leningrad was sent to the Gulag's between 1930-1939.
In May and June of 1954 the prisoners in a Soviet prison labor camp called Kengir in what is now Kazakhstan rebelled against their captors and seized the entire camp. They had 40 days of glorious freedom, until the uprising was finally crushed by the authorities.
What makes this especially interesting is that most of the prisoners were there for political reasons, and as a result what they did with their short-lived freedom is nothing short of remarkable. Art, music, and democratic government all flourished during until the end of the 40 days.
Nobel laureate Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn chronicled the Kengir uprising in his book the Gulag Archipelago, which I personally intend to obtain and read soon. One particularly chilling fact from this book - more than 25% of the entire population of Leningrad was sent to the Gulag's between 1930-1939.
I'm back
I have been buried at work for the last month and took a hiatus, but am now ready to roll again, mucho posts in the next few days.
Up first, Next Big Future's summary of 2008's key advances in technology and developments to watch over the next year or so:
Computers, Robotic and Communication Developments to Watch in 2009 and a Little Beyond
DNA/biotech/synthetic biology, nanotechnology topics are here
Energy and transportation
Up first, Next Big Future's summary of 2008's key advances in technology and developments to watch over the next year or so:
Computers, Robotic and Communication Developments to Watch in 2009 and a Little Beyond
DNA/biotech/synthetic biology, nanotechnology topics are here
Energy and transportation
Monday, November 24, 2008
The Science of the Future of War
Book excerpt from Wired:
TODAY'S MOST BRUTAL WARS are also the most primal. They are fought with machetes in West Africa, with fire and rape and fear in Darfur, and with suicide bombs and improvised explosive devices in Israel, Iraq, and elsewhere. But as horrifying as these conflicts are, they are not the greatest threat to our survival as a species. We humans are a frightening animal. Throughout our species’s existence, we have used each new technology we have developed to boost the destructive power of our ancient predisposition for killing members of our own species. From hands and teeth tearing at isolated individuals, to coordinated raids with clubs and bows and arrows, to pitched battles, prolonged sieges, and on into the age of firearms, the impulse has remained the same but as the efficiency of our weapons has increased, the consequences have grown ever more extreme.
The evidence of history is that no advance which can be applied to the killing of other human beings goes unused. As scientific knowledge continues to explode, it would be naïve, to expect any different. As if we needed any more reasons to confront the role of warfare in our lives, the present supply and future potential of WMDs should convince us that the time has come once and for all to bring our long, violent history of warring against each other to an end.
The nineteenth century was dominated by discoveries in chemistry, from dyes to dynamite. The twentieth century belonged to physics, from subatomic particles and black holes to nuclear weapons. The twenty-first century is set to see great advances in biological knowledge, from our growing understanding of the genome and stem cells to, it’s a shame to say, new and expanded forms of ...
Click here to read the rest of the article
New Longevity Drugs Coming Soon?
From Wired.com
Cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, heart disease: All have stubbornly resisted billions of dollars of research conducted by the world's finest minds. But they all may finally be defied by a single new class of drugs, a virtual cure for the diseases of aging.
In labs across the country, researchers are developing several new drugs that target the cellular engines called mitochondria. The first, resveratrol, is already in clinical trials for diabetes. It could be on the market in four years and used off-label as an all-purpose longevity enhancer. Other drugs promise to be more potent and refined. They might even be cheap.
"It's going to revolutionize western medicine," said Doug Wallace, a pioneer of mitochondrial medicine at the University of California at Irvine. "All the things that are common for an aging society, and nobody worried ...
Read the rest of the story
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Physics of the Impossible - a review
This hypothetical spacecraft with a “negative energy” induction ring was inspired by recent theories describing how space could be warped with negative energy to produce hyperfast transport to reach distant star systems (credit: NASA’s Glenn Research Center).
This review was originally published in the eSkeptic newsletter.
Tauriq Moosa reviews Michio Kaku’s book entitled Physics of the Impossible: A Scientific Exploration of the World of Phasers, Force Fields, Teleportation and Time Travel. (Allen Lane/Penguin, 2008, ISBN 9780715999921).
From Science Fiction to Science Fact
by Tauriq Moosa
The horizon of possibility is stretched before us, penetrated by the shadowy undiscovered, terrain of the impossible. Our light of knowledge feebly illuminates a small circle of comprehension, but according to the New York University physicist and string theorist Michio Kaku, there is hope. More than ever, he believes, we are closer to raising our tiny light to shine everywhere to make that which was fiction into fact, to take the impossible and make it possible.
Who holds the world record for travelling furthest into the future? Where did scientists create materials that were once thought to defy the laws of optics? Why is King Kong’s existence impossible? If you are surprised by the questions, Kaku’s answers will surprise even more.
In this highly readable and exciting work, Kaku builds a case for achieving Arthur C. Clarke’s 3rd law: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Kaku shows how the terrain of the impossible, typically found only in science-fiction, is being systematically conquered by science. Force-fields, teleportation, robots, time-travel, and starships are dealt with seriously and on a time continuum: how long until we achieve these. By classifying these various “fantastical” ideas into three different ranges of time, Kaku argues for when we’ll see them.
Class 1 Impossibilities: technology that is not possible today but within the realm of physics. These are possible within a century or two. In this class, Kaku lists force-fields, invisibility, phasers and death-stars, teleportation, telepathy, psychokinesis, robots, ETs and UFOs, starships, antimatter and anti-universes.
Class 2 Impossibilities: Technology that lies on the cusp of our knowledge of physics. These are possible perhaps within millennia or millions of years. In this class, we find faster than light travel, time-travel, and parallel universes.
Class 3 Impossibilities: Technology that violates known physical laws. Here we find perpetual-motion machines and precognition. That’s it, only two.
Kaku is more concerned with how “fantastical” ideas are being rendered into workable methods of science, rather than on how to actually make a time-machine, a teleportation device and so on. And he does this very well. He estimates, for example, how far we must go before we are able to literally “pop” into a grocery store; create force-fields that could create buildings in an instant; and create perpetual motion machines that would grant us ever-lasting renewable energy.
Kaku writes lucidly and with a touch of boyish charm. He seems like a child in toyshop, able to taste all the varieties and communicate his understanding. Each chapter opens with the science from a sci-fi book or television-show. He then translates these “fantastical” ideas into workable, present-day and evidential-based science. If you don’t mind the too-frequent Star-Trek references, Kaku really shine when he traces the history of an idea. In Time-Travel for example, he recounts St. Augustine’s wonderings about the constant flow of time whereby next Wednesday will be the past of next Thursday, just as this paragraph will be the past as you move to the next paragraph, which at the moment is the future.
This Newtonian idea of time as an arrow was overthrown by Einstein. One second on earth was thought to be one second anywhere in the universe. But, says Kaku: “[Einstein] showed that time was more like a river that meandered across the universe, speeding up and slowing down as it snaked across stars and galaxies. So one second on the Earth is not absolute; time varies when we move around the universe.”
This appears to make time even more incomprehensible and incapable of manipulation. On the contrary, considers Kaku: “Time travel to the future is possible and has been experimentally verified millions of times”. Yes that’s right, millions of times.
Who holds the world record for travelling furthest into the future, then? Currently, it is held by the cosmonaut Sergei Avdeyev, who was in orbit for 748 days and “hence hurled 0.2 seconds into the future”. It isn’t much, but astronauts travelling near the speed of light would experience a passage of time dramatically different from their friends on earth. This fits into Einstein’s special theory of relativity; that is, time-travel is consistent with the laws of physics.
So much for the future. What about the past? How can the past possibly fit into the laws of physics? This is a bit more complicated. Kaku lists five ways of time-travelling to the past:
1. Wormhole: You could journey through a wormhole, since space and time are amalgamated in Einstein’s relativity theory. This, however, is a one-way trip.
2. Spinning Universe: If you travelled around (an assumed spinning) universe fast enough, you could find yourself before you left. This would be journeying into the past.
3. Rotating Cylinder: If you walk around an infinitely long cylinder, rotating constantly, you might arrive before you even left.
4. Cosmic Strings: The collision of two gigantic cosmic strings (from the Big Bang) could catapult you back in time, if you travelled around them.
5. Transversable Wormholes: This involves a time machine with two spherical chambers (A & B), using a method of implosion to remove one of the spheres to create negative energy. (You would use the Casimir effect, which means the space between two parallel uncharged metal plates can be used to gain less-than-zero energy, from the removal of kinetic energy.) Using a wormhole, you connect both chambers. You would take a chamber (A) and send it into space, at light-speed. This first chamber (A) would be slower in time. If you are in the second chamber (B), you could immediately use the wormhole to travel to the first (A). Thus you have gone backward in time (from B–A).
This is all within the realms of physics (Class 2) and that is essentially Kaku’s point. And if it is not within the current realms of physics, there is a possibly of shifting physics and not necessarily the technology. He is not setting up step-by-step guidelines on how to create Douglas Adam’s type machines (like Deep Thought and Eddie); nor is he attempting to defend the creation of such things as ray-guns and Deathstars. This might be seen as a fault: How can Kaku rejoice in the creation of a technology that can destroy our planet?
Bertrand Russell once said: “There is no method of securing what is pleasant in science without what is unpleasant. We can do so, of course, by refusing to face the logic of the situation; but if so, we shall dry up the impulse to scientific discovery at its source, which is the desire to understand the world.” We have to take the one with the other — gaining greater understanding of Perpetual Motion Machines could mean an endless supply of energy eliminating poverty, or a fanatical tyrant using it for control.
Like all good science books, Physics of the Impossible should help alter your perception of possibility and (like space-time in the future possibly) bend it.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Save the world, play Superstruct
Check out Superstruct, the world's first massively multi-player forecasting game.
I will be playing, look for Future_Dave, I published the FAQ set from the site below.
Q: What is Superstruct?
A: Superstruct is the world's first massively multiplayer forecasting game. By playing the game, you'll help us chronicle the world of 2019--and imagine how we might solve the problems we'll face. Because this is about more than just envisioning the future. It's about making the future, inventing new ways to organize the human race and augment our collective human potential.
Q: Why should I play Superstruct?
A: Here are some of our favorite reasons: Because you're curious about the future, because you want to make friends and collaborators all over the planet, because you want to learn how to become a future forecaster, and because you want to change the world.
Q: What does "superstruct" mean?
Su`per`struct´ v. t. 1.To build over or upon another structure; to erect upon a foundation.
Superstructing is what humans do. We build new structures on old structures. We build media on top of language and communication networks. We build communities on top of family structures. We build corporations on top of platforms for manufacturing, marketing, and distribution. Superstructing has allowed us to survive in the past and it will help us survive the super-threats.
I will be playing, look for Future_Dave, I published the FAQ set from the site below.
Q: What is Superstruct?
A: Superstruct is the world's first massively multiplayer forecasting game. By playing the game, you'll help us chronicle the world of 2019--and imagine how we might solve the problems we'll face. Because this is about more than just envisioning the future. It's about making the future, inventing new ways to organize the human race and augment our collective human potential.
Q: Why should I play Superstruct?
A: Here are some of our favorite reasons: Because you're curious about the future, because you want to make friends and collaborators all over the planet, because you want to learn how to become a future forecaster, and because you want to change the world.
Q: What does "superstruct" mean?
Su`per`struct´ v. t. 1.To build over or upon another structure; to erect upon a foundation.
Superstructing is what humans do. We build new structures on old structures. We build media on top of language and communication networks. We build communities on top of family structures. We build corporations on top of platforms for manufacturing, marketing, and distribution. Superstructing has allowed us to survive in the past and it will help us survive the super-threats.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Knowledge will increase 100 fold by 2050
I just purchased a paper titled "55 Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World" from the World Future Society. It is very worthwhile, below is one interesting conjecture from the paper.
The pace of technological change accelerates with each new generation of discoveries and applications.
The design and marketing cycle—idea, invention, innovation, imitation—
is shrinking steadily. Thus, products must capture their market quickly, before the competition cancopy them. As late as the 1940s, the product cycle stretched to 30 or 40 years. Today, it seldom lasts 30 or 40 weeks.
Almost any new consumer product can be exactly duplicated by Chinese
factories and sold on eBay within a week after it is introduced.
Implications: All the technical knowledge we work with today will represent only 1% of the knowledge that will be available in 2050.
The pace of technological change accelerates with each new generation of discoveries and applications.
The design and marketing cycle—idea, invention, innovation, imitation—
is shrinking steadily. Thus, products must capture their market quickly, before the competition cancopy them. As late as the 1940s, the product cycle stretched to 30 or 40 years. Today, it seldom lasts 30 or 40 weeks.
Almost any new consumer product can be exactly duplicated by Chinese
factories and sold on eBay within a week after it is introduced.
Implications: All the technical knowledge we work with today will represent only 1% of the knowledge that will be available in 2050.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
E-books finally suck less
New e-books are being released over the coming months that are starting to provide decent alternatives to paper. Some remaining issues to be solved are slow refresh rates (8/10 of a second) which prevent support of animation and video and lack of color. Color versions are supposed to be availble next year, and video is forecast to be supported by 2012.
The iRexReader 1000 which will be released in the coming months will have options such as touchscreen, bluetooth, wifi, and 3G cell connection.
My opinion is that this niche product for reading books/magazines etc. will become a true convergence device and in about 3-5 years will start to replace laptops for some uses and even mobile phones, assuming the form factor can be figured out, as well as replacing print.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Peter Drucker on Marketing
Jack Trout is a major thinker in the area of marketing strategy and spouts some good stuff in this article on Forbes.com, although he does wander a bit.
Jack starts with Drucker’s conception of marketing and tries to explain how to generate marketing success. I have tried to distill his four steps down into simpler terms below, and have also included Drucker’s quote, for if you remember just one thing from this article, it should be Drucker’s words.
1. Understand your competitors and your positioning relative to them in the customer’s minds
2. Develop a differentiated value proposition
3. Have a compelling argument based on direct comparisons with competitors
4. Do some good marketing
"Because the purpose of business is to create a customer, the business enterprise has two--and only two--basic functions: marketing and innovation. Marketing and innovation produce results; all the rest are costs. Marketing is the distinguishing, unique function of the business." -Peter Drucker
Obama Suddenly Panicked After Gazing Too Far Into Future
Its from the Onion, and is damn funny.
MADISON, WI—Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) fell deathly silent in the middle of a speech on education before the Wisconsin Teachers Union Tuesday, his failure of words reportedly a result of the Democratic nominee's forward-looking tendencies suddenly bringing him a harrowing glimpse of a future world shaped by madness and horror. " click through to read the rest
Is the semantic web really the next big thing?
I really hate the web 2.0 et al terminology because it doesn't mean anything, and in general I'm not much for bullshit terms.
However, I am very interested in the future direction of the Internet, and recently found an interesting article on this topic from Forbes talking about what the author calls Web 3.0.
In Web 3.0: What's Next After What's Next the author makes his pitch, primarily about the semantic web, and I'm sure that it will lead to a number of speaking engagements for him.
Its an interesting read and a good conversation starter, although I’m not sold that the author has much of a clue about what the future of the web holds.
There is little discussion of ubiquitous or mobile computing for example, but he does dive a bit into software as a service and cloud computing. The author seems to have planted his flag firmly on the top of mount "semantic web", and waxes semi-eloquent on the topic for a number of pages.
I do believe that benefit will be derived from some of the approaches grouped under the semantic web topic, but that they will be felt most in areas where someone has the power to drive compliance with standards. Some of the arguments sound a bit like the next wave of "EDI will change the world" which then became "XML will change the world.
Additionally, some of the concepts fall prey to the dismal science's core tenet - humans are self-interested. People are not altruistic (if you think so, lets talk about utility), therefore they will do things that benefit themselves to the detriment of others.
In this particular context, they will abuse definitions of objects, global taxonomies, and anything else they see fit, unless someone has the power to stop them, or at least make them feel a little pain. This implies also that someone spends time and money monitoring and ensuring compliance, which given the scale of the web, is more than just an enormous undertaking.
So, I'm not so sure that the semantic web will truly change the world, but it is more likely than not that we will continue our steady advance towards SkyNet, at which point we will all either die or spend our days fighting cybernetic terminators. :)
However, I am very interested in the future direction of the Internet, and recently found an interesting article on this topic from Forbes talking about what the author calls Web 3.0.
In Web 3.0: What's Next After What's Next the author makes his pitch, primarily about the semantic web, and I'm sure that it will lead to a number of speaking engagements for him.
Its an interesting read and a good conversation starter, although I’m not sold that the author has much of a clue about what the future of the web holds.
There is little discussion of ubiquitous or mobile computing for example, but he does dive a bit into software as a service and cloud computing. The author seems to have planted his flag firmly on the top of mount "semantic web", and waxes semi-eloquent on the topic for a number of pages.
I do believe that benefit will be derived from some of the approaches grouped under the semantic web topic, but that they will be felt most in areas where someone has the power to drive compliance with standards. Some of the arguments sound a bit like the next wave of "EDI will change the world" which then became "XML will change the world.
Additionally, some of the concepts fall prey to the dismal science's core tenet - humans are self-interested. People are not altruistic (if you think so, lets talk about utility), therefore they will do things that benefit themselves to the detriment of others.
In this particular context, they will abuse definitions of objects, global taxonomies, and anything else they see fit, unless someone has the power to stop them, or at least make them feel a little pain. This implies also that someone spends time and money monitoring and ensuring compliance, which given the scale of the web, is more than just an enormous undertaking.
So, I'm not so sure that the semantic web will truly change the world, but it is more likely than not that we will continue our steady advance towards SkyNet, at which point we will all either die or spend our days fighting cybernetic terminators. :)
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Why rednecks may rule the world
Great stuff from the BBC, a snippet is below, you'll have to click through to the BBC for the rest.
By Joe Bageant
Author of Deerhunting With Jesus
During this US election cycle we are hearing a lot from the pundits and candidates about "heartland voters," and "white working class voters."
What they are talking about are rednecks. But in their political correctness, media types cannot bring themselves to utter the word "redneck." So I'll say it for them: redneck-redneck-redneck-redneck.
The fact is that we American rednecks embrace the term in a sort of proud defiance. To us, the term redneck indicates a culture we were born in and enjoy. So I find it very interesting that politically correct people have taken it upon themselves to protect us from what has come to be one of our own warm and light hearted terms for one another.
On the other hand, I can quite imagine their concern, given what's at stake in the upcoming election. We represent at least a third of all voters and no US president has ever been elected without our support.
Consequently, rednecks have never had so many friends or so much attention as in 2008. Contrary to the stereotype, we are not all tobacco chewing, guffawing Southerners, but are scattered from coast to coast. Over 50% of us live in the "cultural south", which is to say places with white Southern Scots-Irish values - redneck ...
Click here for the rest of the article
Artificial Super Muscles
Researchers have developed methods for creating nanotube reinforced composites which hold the possibility of one day being used as artificial muscle or skin.
Original research paper is here.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Bolo Tanks in the Near Future?
Next Big Future has a great article on how to a build a Bolo tank out of technology that is either available or relatively near term, with some interesting results.
My vote is on the hovercraft.
My vote is on the hovercraft.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Super Soldier Program
Maybe we can join the military when we turn 70 and get rejuvenated, like in Old Man's War.
We are investing billions into a super soldier program, which is seeking to achieve transhumanism within a few decades. Gene therapy also holds some great promise to enable average people to gain the ability to perform at or above human maximum.
We are investing billions into a super soldier program, which is seeking to achieve transhumanism within a few decades. Gene therapy also holds some great promise to enable average people to gain the ability to perform at or above human maximum.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Augmented Reality
Imagine a world that can be overlayed on the existing reality - the possibilities are nearly endless.
Augmented Reality from Wikipedia
Augmented Reality discussion
Augmented Reality from Wikipedia
Augmented Reality discussion
Friday, August 8, 2008
Everybody Dies!
Continuing in the vein of global catastrophic risk, here a list of top 10 world ending disasters, apparently written by some guy who didn't want his name associated with it.
Will Robots Replace Humans?
Video from HowStuffWorks with a phd from Georgia Tech, basically stating that we are just emerging from the infancy of robotics to the toddler stage and that huge advances will come in the reasonably near future.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Material that is 200 Times Stronger than Steel!
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms attached to each other in a honeycomb pattern.
According to Columbia Professor James Hone, “It would take an elephant, balanced on a pencil, to break through a sheet of graphene the thickness of Saran Wrap.” It is approximately 200 times stronger than steel and is the strongest material know to man at this moment.
This is a true sci-fi material that has the potential for all sorts of real world applications, assuming that scientists can find a way to actually manufacture it at sizes greater than the microscopic.
A story about graphene-enhanced plastics can be found here.
, and a Next Big Future post about Graphene is here.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Global Catastrophic Risks Conference
It won't be the Dark Overlord of the Universe, or Galactus, Y2K or even rap music that will wipe out life as we know it. No, it's most likely that we will do ourselves in as a race with our own technology. A group of "experts" (not sure how one can be an expert on this topic) got together in London had some interesting discussions and was reported by CNN.
LONDON, England (CNN) -- A group of experts from around the world will Thursday hold a first of its kind conference on global catastrophic risks.
Some experts say humans will merge with machines before the end of this century.
They will discuss what should be done to prevent these risks from becoming realities that could lead to the end of human life on earth as we know it.
Speakers at the four-day event at Oxford University in Britain will talk about topics including nuclear terrorism and what to do if a large asteroid were to be on a collision course with our planet.
On the final day of the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference experts will focus on what could be the unintended consequences of new technologies, such as superintelligent machines that, if ill-conceived, might cause the demise of Homo sapiens.
"Any entity which is radically smarter than human beings would also be very powerful," said Dr. Nick Bostrom, director of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, host of the symposium. "If we get something wrong, you could imagine the consequences would involve the extinction of the human species."
Bostrom is a philosopher and a leading thinker of transhumanism -- a movement that advocates not only the study of the potential threats and promises that future technologies could pose to human life but also the ways in which emergent technologies could be used to make the very act of living better.
"We want to preserve the best of what it is to be human and maybe even amplify that," Bostrom told CNN. Transhumanists, according to Bostrom, anticipate a coming era where biotechnology, molecular nanotechnologies, artificial intelligence and other new types of cognitive tools will be used to amplify our intellectual capacity, improve our physical capabilities and even enhance our emotional well-being.
The end result would be a new form of "posthuman" life with beings that possess qualities and skills so exceedingly advanced they no longer can be classified simply as humans.
"We will begin to use science and technology not just to manage the world around us but to manage our own human biology as well," Bostrom told CNN. "The changes will be faster and more profound than the very, very slow changes that would occur over tens of thousands of years as a result of natural selection and biological evolution."
Bostrom declined to try to predict an exact time frame when this revolutionary biotechnological metamorphosis might occur. "Maybe it will take eight years or 200 years," he said. "It is very hard to predict."
Other experts are already getting ready for what they say could be a radical transformation of the human race in as little as two decades.
"This will happen faster than people realize," said Dr. Ray Kurzweil, an inventor and futurist who calculates technology trends using what he calls the law of accelerating returns, a mathematical concept that measures the exponential growth of technological evolution.
In the 1980s Kurzweil predicted that a tiny handheld device would be invented sometime early in the 21st century allowing blind people to read documents from anywhere at anytime -- earlier this year such a device was publicly unveiled. He also anticipated the explosive growth of the Internet in the 1990s.
Now Kurzweil is predicting the impending arrival of something called the Singularity, which he defines in his book on the subject as "the culmination of the merger of our biological thinking and existence with our technology, resulting in a world that is still human but that transcends our biological roots."
"There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine or between physical and virtual reality," he writes.
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Singularity will approach at an accelerating rate as human-created technologies become exponentially smaller and increasingly powerful and as fields such as biology and medicine are understood more and more in terms of information processes that can be simulated with computers.
By the 2030s, Kurzweil tells CNN, humans will become more non-biological than biological, capable of uploading our minds onto the Internet, living in various virtual worlds and even avoiding aging and evading death.
In the 2040s, Kurzweil predicts non-biological intelligence will be billions of times better than the biological intelligence humans have today, possibly rendering our present brains as obsolete.
"Our brains are a million times slower than electronics," said Kurzweil. "We will increasingly become software entities if you go out enough decades."
This movement towards the merger of man and machine, according to Kurzweil, is already starting to happen and is most visible in the field of biotechnology.
As scientists gain deeper insights into the genetic processes that underlie life, they are able to effectively reprogram human biology through the development of new forms of gene therapies and medications capable of turning on or off enzymes and RNA interference, or gene silencing.
"Biology and health and medicine used to be hit or miss," said Kurzweil. "It wasn't based on any coherent theory about how it works."
The emerging biotechnology revolution will lead to at least a thousand new drugs that could do anything from slow down the process of aging to reverse the onset of diseases, like heart disease and cancer, Kurzweil said.
By 2020, Kurzweil predicts a second revolution in the area of nanotechnology. According to his calculations, it is already showing signs of exponential growth as scientists begin test first generation nanobots that can cure Type 1 diabetes in rats or heal spinal cord injuries in mice.
One scientist is developing something called a respirocyte -- a robotic red blood cell that, if injected into the bloodstream, would allow humans to do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of a swimming pool for hours at a time.
Other researchers are developing nanoparticles that can locate tumors and one day possibly even eradicate them.
And some Parkinson's patients now have pea-sized computers implanted in their brains that replace neurons destroyed by the disease -- new software can be downloaded to the mini computers from outside the human body.
"Nanotechnology will not just be used to reprogram but to transcend biology and go beyond its limitations by merging with non-biological systems," Kurzweil told CNN. "If we rebuild biological systems with nanotechnology, we can go beyond its limits."
The final revolution leading to the advent of Singularity will be the creation of artificial intelligence, or superintelligence, which, according to Kurzweil, could be capable of solving many of our biggest threats, like environmental destruction, poverty and disease.
"A more intelligent process will inherently outcompete one that is less intelligent, making intelligence the most powerful force in the universe," writes Kurzweil.
Yet the invention of so many high-powered technologies and the possibility of merging these new technologies with humans may pose both peril and promise for the future of mankind.
"I think there are grave dangers," said Kurzweil. "Technology has always been a double-edged sword."
LONDON, England (CNN) -- A group of experts from around the world will Thursday hold a first of its kind conference on global catastrophic risks.
Some experts say humans will merge with machines before the end of this century.
They will discuss what should be done to prevent these risks from becoming realities that could lead to the end of human life on earth as we know it.
Speakers at the four-day event at Oxford University in Britain will talk about topics including nuclear terrorism and what to do if a large asteroid were to be on a collision course with our planet.
On the final day of the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference experts will focus on what could be the unintended consequences of new technologies, such as superintelligent machines that, if ill-conceived, might cause the demise of Homo sapiens.
"Any entity which is radically smarter than human beings would also be very powerful," said Dr. Nick Bostrom, director of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, host of the symposium. "If we get something wrong, you could imagine the consequences would involve the extinction of the human species."
Bostrom is a philosopher and a leading thinker of transhumanism -- a movement that advocates not only the study of the potential threats and promises that future technologies could pose to human life but also the ways in which emergent technologies could be used to make the very act of living better.
"We want to preserve the best of what it is to be human and maybe even amplify that," Bostrom told CNN. Transhumanists, according to Bostrom, anticipate a coming era where biotechnology, molecular nanotechnologies, artificial intelligence and other new types of cognitive tools will be used to amplify our intellectual capacity, improve our physical capabilities and even enhance our emotional well-being.
The end result would be a new form of "posthuman" life with beings that possess qualities and skills so exceedingly advanced they no longer can be classified simply as humans.
"We will begin to use science and technology not just to manage the world around us but to manage our own human biology as well," Bostrom told CNN. "The changes will be faster and more profound than the very, very slow changes that would occur over tens of thousands of years as a result of natural selection and biological evolution."
Bostrom declined to try to predict an exact time frame when this revolutionary biotechnological metamorphosis might occur. "Maybe it will take eight years or 200 years," he said. "It is very hard to predict."
Other experts are already getting ready for what they say could be a radical transformation of the human race in as little as two decades.
"This will happen faster than people realize," said Dr. Ray Kurzweil, an inventor and futurist who calculates technology trends using what he calls the law of accelerating returns, a mathematical concept that measures the exponential growth of technological evolution.
In the 1980s Kurzweil predicted that a tiny handheld device would be invented sometime early in the 21st century allowing blind people to read documents from anywhere at anytime -- earlier this year such a device was publicly unveiled. He also anticipated the explosive growth of the Internet in the 1990s.
Now Kurzweil is predicting the impending arrival of something called the Singularity, which he defines in his book on the subject as "the culmination of the merger of our biological thinking and existence with our technology, resulting in a world that is still human but that transcends our biological roots."
"There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine or between physical and virtual reality," he writes.
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Singularity will approach at an accelerating rate as human-created technologies become exponentially smaller and increasingly powerful and as fields such as biology and medicine are understood more and more in terms of information processes that can be simulated with computers.
By the 2030s, Kurzweil tells CNN, humans will become more non-biological than biological, capable of uploading our minds onto the Internet, living in various virtual worlds and even avoiding aging and evading death.
In the 2040s, Kurzweil predicts non-biological intelligence will be billions of times better than the biological intelligence humans have today, possibly rendering our present brains as obsolete.
"Our brains are a million times slower than electronics," said Kurzweil. "We will increasingly become software entities if you go out enough decades."
This movement towards the merger of man and machine, according to Kurzweil, is already starting to happen and is most visible in the field of biotechnology.
As scientists gain deeper insights into the genetic processes that underlie life, they are able to effectively reprogram human biology through the development of new forms of gene therapies and medications capable of turning on or off enzymes and RNA interference, or gene silencing.
"Biology and health and medicine used to be hit or miss," said Kurzweil. "It wasn't based on any coherent theory about how it works."
The emerging biotechnology revolution will lead to at least a thousand new drugs that could do anything from slow down the process of aging to reverse the onset of diseases, like heart disease and cancer, Kurzweil said.
By 2020, Kurzweil predicts a second revolution in the area of nanotechnology. According to his calculations, it is already showing signs of exponential growth as scientists begin test first generation nanobots that can cure Type 1 diabetes in rats or heal spinal cord injuries in mice.
One scientist is developing something called a respirocyte -- a robotic red blood cell that, if injected into the bloodstream, would allow humans to do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of a swimming pool for hours at a time.
Other researchers are developing nanoparticles that can locate tumors and one day possibly even eradicate them.
And some Parkinson's patients now have pea-sized computers implanted in their brains that replace neurons destroyed by the disease -- new software can be downloaded to the mini computers from outside the human body.
"Nanotechnology will not just be used to reprogram but to transcend biology and go beyond its limitations by merging with non-biological systems," Kurzweil told CNN. "If we rebuild biological systems with nanotechnology, we can go beyond its limits."
The final revolution leading to the advent of Singularity will be the creation of artificial intelligence, or superintelligence, which, according to Kurzweil, could be capable of solving many of our biggest threats, like environmental destruction, poverty and disease.
"A more intelligent process will inherently outcompete one that is less intelligent, making intelligence the most powerful force in the universe," writes Kurzweil.
Yet the invention of so many high-powered technologies and the possibility of merging these new technologies with humans may pose both peril and promise for the future of mankind.
"I think there are grave dangers," said Kurzweil. "Technology has always been a double-edged sword."
Respirocytes: A Mechanical Articificial Red Blood Cell
Respirocytes are hypothetical robotic red blood cells that, if injected into the bloodstream, would allow humans to do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of a swimming pool for hours at a time. Abstract: Molecular manufacturing promises precise control of matter at the atomic and molecular level, allowing the construction of micron-scale machines comprised of nanometer-scale components. Medical nanomachines will be among the earliest applications. The artificial red blood cell or "respirocyte" proposed here is a bloodborne spherical 1-micron diamondoid 1000-atm pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, able to deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells and to manage carbonic acidity. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors enable complex device behaviors remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals. Primary applications will include transfusable blood substitution; partial treatment for anemia, perinatal/neonatal and lung disorders; enhancement of cardiovascular/neurovascular procedures, tumor therapies and diagnostics; prevention of asphyxia; artificial breathing; and a variety of sports, veterinary, battlefield and other uses.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Walking robot video
Check out this video of a robot that can walk in deep snow, ice, steep hills, etc. If a method to power it for long periods of time can be developed, I could see these things following soldiers around carrying extra ammo, etc. Add some camera's and a weapon mount, and it could be used as an armed scout.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Battle Robots
Noah Schachtman from Wired writes a very interesting story about a Defense Department robot acquisition program that led to some underhanded activity.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
How much does US Airways suck?
This is difficult to quantify, but I can give a subjective account of their degree of suckitude. This happened back in March, but I am still pissed.
I was in New Hampshire with 2 colleagues participating in and leading portions of a fairly large meeting/seminar. This was on Good Friday (who scheduled that?) and I received a message from my travel agent about 3:00 that my 5:00 flight out of Manchester was cancelled.
I called US Air and waited on the phone for 10 minutes, finally got through to a human, and was immediately disconnected. At this point, I was cursing phone ACD systems, but wasn't overly teed-off at US Air. I call back, wait another 10 minutes, and finally get through to someone.
This person's native language clearly wasn't English, and I don't think that you could even say that her 2nd language was English as she couldn't understand anything that I said, and could barely utter a handful of English terms herself.
Every single time I said something, she would say "hold please", put me on hold, and then make me wait anywhere from 30 seconds to 2 minutes. After about 4 or 5 times of this crap, she finally told me very clearly that she couldn't help me any further because I had a "paper ticket".
I told her that not only did I not have a paper ticket, that I haven't had a paper ticket in many years and didn't know what the heck she was talking about. Her immediate response was "hold please".
She came back a minute two later and repeated her previous assurance about my alleged paper ticket. I insisted that I indeed did not have a paper ticket, and as a result received the dreaded "hold please".
By this time I was fuming. Fortunately for me, our travel agent had been busy actually trying to help us (actual customer service) and called my colleague back. She said that US Airways had booked us for a return trip the following Tuesday!
She changed the flight to the following day from Boston instead of Manchester, which began another ordeal. That flight also ending up being cancelled as well for mechanical reasons, and we ended up flying to DFW and renting a car.
I arrived home finally at 3:30 AM Easter morning, about a 1 1/2 days late.
This is clearly a business that has lost its way, and needs to be closed or taken over by a more competent organization.
I was in New Hampshire with 2 colleagues participating in and leading portions of a fairly large meeting/seminar. This was on Good Friday (who scheduled that?) and I received a message from my travel agent about 3:00 that my 5:00 flight out of Manchester was cancelled.
I called US Air and waited on the phone for 10 minutes, finally got through to a human, and was immediately disconnected. At this point, I was cursing phone ACD systems, but wasn't overly teed-off at US Air. I call back, wait another 10 minutes, and finally get through to someone.
This person's native language clearly wasn't English, and I don't think that you could even say that her 2nd language was English as she couldn't understand anything that I said, and could barely utter a handful of English terms herself.
Every single time I said something, she would say "hold please", put me on hold, and then make me wait anywhere from 30 seconds to 2 minutes. After about 4 or 5 times of this crap, she finally told me very clearly that she couldn't help me any further because I had a "paper ticket".
I told her that not only did I not have a paper ticket, that I haven't had a paper ticket in many years and didn't know what the heck she was talking about. Her immediate response was "hold please".
She came back a minute two later and repeated her previous assurance about my alleged paper ticket. I insisted that I indeed did not have a paper ticket, and as a result received the dreaded "hold please".
By this time I was fuming. Fortunately for me, our travel agent had been busy actually trying to help us (actual customer service) and called my colleague back. She said that US Airways had booked us for a return trip the following Tuesday!
She changed the flight to the following day from Boston instead of Manchester, which began another ordeal. That flight also ending up being cancelled as well for mechanical reasons, and we ended up flying to DFW and renting a car.
I arrived home finally at 3:30 AM Easter morning, about a 1 1/2 days late.
This is clearly a business that has lost its way, and needs to be closed or taken over by a more competent organization.
Government's War on the Internet
Randall Rothenberg writes an interesting piece that is publsished on the Interactive Adverstising Bureau's website as "Governments's War on the Web" and in somewhat different form for a much broader audience at the Huffington Post as "War against the Web".
This is well worth reading, a snippet is below:
"With barely an acknowledgement of the myriad ways in which the Internet has revolutionized economic development, information access, and communications diversity, an increasingly organized coalition of anti-business groups is mobilizing to get the Government to shut it down.
And the scary thing is: They are succeeding. I’ve detailed this “break-the-Web” effort in an article in yesterday’s Huffington Post. I urge you to print it out, circulate it, and oppose the forces that would force you under. (More on that later.)"
This is well worth reading, a snippet is below:
"With barely an acknowledgement of the myriad ways in which the Internet has revolutionized economic development, information access, and communications diversity, an increasingly organized coalition of anti-business groups is mobilizing to get the Government to shut it down.
And the scary thing is: They are succeeding. I’ve detailed this “break-the-Web” effort in an article in yesterday’s Huffington Post. I urge you to print it out, circulate it, and oppose the forces that would force you under. (More on that later.)"
Monday, April 21, 2008
Internet's effect on transaction costs and the size of firms
Below is a snip from a very interesting article in Wikipedia regarding Coase's Theorem, which describes the economic efficiency of an economic allocation or outcome in the presence of externalities.
The theorem states that when trade in an externality is possible and there are no transaction costs, bargaining will lead to an efficient outcome regardless of the initial allocation of property rights. In practice, obstacles to bargaining or poorly defined property rights can prevent Coasian bargaining.
A key point when applied in the Internet age
The theorem states that when trade in an externality is possible and there are no transaction costs, bargaining will lead to an efficient outcome regardless of the initial allocation of property rights. In practice, obstacles to bargaining or poorly defined property rights can prevent Coasian bargaining.
A key point when applied in the Internet age
This is one of the reasons why, in the past, companies used to grow more and more: it was better to make something in house since the cost of the transaction to buy it was high.
In the internet era, Coase's theorem became even more up to date, but under a slightly different version. The concept is the same, but the way of reading it is the opposite. We could say: "the size of a company will decrease until the cost of doing something inside the company will be lower than doing it outside".
In other words, since in the internet era the cost of the transactions became very small, as a consequence, the size of the companies is decreasing. An example of this phenomenon is the increasing pace of the outsourcing and off-shoring businesses
In the internet era, Coase's theorem became even more up to date, but under a slightly different version. The concept is the same, but the way of reading it is the opposite. We could say: "the size of a company will decrease until the cost of doing something inside the company will be lower than doing it outside".
In other words, since in the internet era the cost of the transactions became very small, as a consequence, the size of the companies is decreasing. An example of this phenomenon is the increasing pace of the outsourcing and off-shoring businesses
Monday, March 31, 2008
Monday, March 24, 2008
10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World
From MIT's Technology Review:
Technology Review unveils its annual selection of hot new technologies about to affect our lives in revolutionary ways-and profiles the innovators behind them.
With new technologies constantly being invented in universities and companies across the globe, guessing which ones will transform computing, medicine, communication, and our energy infrastructure is always a challenge. Nonetheless, Technology Review's editors are willing to bet that the 10 emerging technologies highlighted in this special package will affect our lives and work in revolutionary ways-whether next year or next decade. For each, we've identified a researcher whose ideas and efforts both epitomize and reinvent his or her field. The following snapshots of the innovators and their work provide a glimpse of the future these evolving technologies may provide.
10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World:
Universal Translation
Synthetic Biology
Nanowires
T-Rays
Distributed Storage
RNAi Interference
Power Grid Control
Microfluidic Optical Fibers
Bayesiam Machine Learning
Technology Review unveils its annual selection of hot new technologies about to affect our lives in revolutionary ways-and profiles the innovators behind them.
With new technologies constantly being invented in universities and companies across the globe, guessing which ones will transform computing, medicine, communication, and our energy infrastructure is always a challenge. Nonetheless, Technology Review's editors are willing to bet that the 10 emerging technologies highlighted in this special package will affect our lives and work in revolutionary ways-whether next year or next decade. For each, we've identified a researcher whose ideas and efforts both epitomize and reinvent his or her field. The following snapshots of the innovators and their work provide a glimpse of the future these evolving technologies may provide.
10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World:
Universal Translation
Synthetic Biology
Nanowires
T-Rays
Distributed Storage
RNAi Interference
Power Grid Control
Microfluidic Optical Fibers
Bayesiam Machine Learning
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Great sites for mobile phone surfing
From Mequoda
- Computerworld - (http://mobile.computerworld.com) - Not only do they offer a clean uncluttered look, but if you go to their search engine you'll find an ad for their freemium. Just hand over your email address and they'll send you a link for the case study. Bravo Computerworld.
- Facebook - (http://m.facebook.com)- Facebooks mobile interface is by far in the lead in terms of functionality. Usability experts and users alike constantly praise it. Every aspect of the website was well thought out in order to make all tasks easy to complete, view, and search.. with serious bandwidth optimization.
- PC Magazine (http://mobile.pcmag.com): Complete with ads, font-sizing buttons and a sleek design, PC Magazine's mobile site is one of the best.
- MSNBC (http://www.msnbc.msn.com): Automatically detected by your mobile device, and easy to use. No clicking "next", just everything you want and need right away. A very intelligently designed mobile site.
- Forbes - (http://mobile.forbes.com) - Easy to look up quotes from the main screen and access all articles. Complete with external advertising as well as internal ads embedded in articles for users to subscribe to Forbes' mobile alerts.
- Car and Driver - (http://m.caranddriver.com) - Perfectly balanced text and graphics that show up with ease and works on a huge variety of handsets.
- The New York Times (http://mobile.nytimes.com): The site wouldn't be used to do any kind of research, but if you're just looking to read the latest stories, it's adequate and easy to use. It even offers social functions like the ability to email the story.
- Internet Movie Database (IMDb) (http://www.imdb.com): IMDb is one of those websites that NEEDS a mobile presence, and movie fans are very happy with their mobile edition that self-detects.
- Google - (http://www.google.com/m) - Even with an easy to use interface, users still like optimized websites, especially search engines. The mobile Google homepage has no ads unlike the Yahoo!
- Amazon
- Marie Claire (http://m.marieclaire.com): It's simplistic design is perfect for mobile, which identifies categories first, then headlines, and then dives into the tip.
- Time (http://mobile.time.com): Time doesn't offer all of its content for mobile, but what it does offer is complete and lengthy, if that's what you're looking for.
- Wapedia (Mobile Wikipedia) - (http://wapedia.mobi) - Think mobile Wikipedia. Wikipedia does have it's own lightweight version, but it was created by a 3rd party and is not as widely used or
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Gammy-ray Annhilation Lasers Kick Ass
Perhaps the missing piece that will enable fusion reactors? OK, probably not, fusion seems to destined to remain "40 years off" forever, but its a nice thought.
Fragile particles rarely seen in our Universe have been merged with ordinary electrons to make a new form of matter.
Di-positronium, as the new molecule is known, was predicted to exist in 1946 but has remained elusive to science. Now, a US team has created thousands of the molecules by merging electrons with their antimatter equivalent: positrons.
The discovery, reported in the journal Nature, is a key step in the creation of ultra-powerful lasers known as gamma-ray annihilation lasers. "The difference in the power available from a gamma-ray laser compared to a normal laser is the same as the difference between a nuclear explosion and a chemical explosion," said Dr David Cassidy of the University of California, Riverside, and one of the authors of the paper.
It would have an incredibly high power density." As a result, there is a huge interest in the technology from the military as well as energy researchers who believe the lasers could be used to kick-start nuclear fusion in a reactor
Fragile particles rarely seen in our Universe have been merged with ordinary electrons to make a new form of matter.
Di-positronium, as the new molecule is known, was predicted to exist in 1946 but has remained elusive to science. Now, a US team has created thousands of the molecules by merging electrons with their antimatter equivalent: positrons.
The discovery, reported in the journal Nature, is a key step in the creation of ultra-powerful lasers known as gamma-ray annihilation lasers. "The difference in the power available from a gamma-ray laser compared to a normal laser is the same as the difference between a nuclear explosion and a chemical explosion," said Dr David Cassidy of the University of California, Riverside, and one of the authors of the paper.
It would have an incredibly high power density." As a result, there is a huge interest in the technology from the military as well as energy researchers who believe the lasers could be used to kick-start nuclear fusion in a reactor
Coolest Extinct Animals
A fun story from Wired, althought I don't necessarily agree with their list.
My additions to the list:
Biggest, baddest bear ever
Terror bird
Sabre-toothed tigers
Dire wolves
23 foot long/4000 pound dragons
even more here
Wired article below
My additions to the list:
Biggest, baddest bear ever
Terror bird
Sabre-toothed tigers
Dire wolves
23 foot long/4000 pound dragons
even more here
Wired article below
The Best: Extinct Animals, From an Elephant Bird to a 10-Foot-Long, Four-Eyed Spider
1) Carcharodon megalodon
Description A shark twice the length of a great white, this 50-foot killing machine had serrated teeth the size of bowie knives. You would definitely need a bigger boat.
Last seen 1.6 million years ago.
2) Arthropleura armata
Description Creeped out by centipedes? You never would've made it in the Carboniferous era. This 7-foot-long insect was like an even more horrifying and unspeakable version of the Rockettes.
Last seen At the beginning of the Permian period (290 million years ago) — and in your nightmares.
3) Meganeura monyi (Not shown)
Description Dragonflies are already cool. Add a 3-foot wingspan? Awesome.
Last seen The Permian extinction (250 million years ago).
4) Aepyornis maximus
Description The elephant bird stood taller than a basketball hoop, and you could make more than 40 omelets from one of its foot-long eggs. Brunch!
Last seen In the 16th century. Couldn't adjust to the Gregorian calendar?
5) Elasmotherium sibiricum
Description This 20-foot-long Eurasian rhino could run like a horse and gore its enemies with a 6-foot horn. That is one badass unicorn.
Last seen 800,000 years ago.
6) Gigantopithecus blacki
Description Known mostly by the fossilized teeth it left behind, this king of Kongs stood roughly 9 feet tall and weighed around half a ton.
Last seen 300,000 years ago — or possibly in Harry and the Hendersons.
7) Jaekelopterus rhenaniae (Not shown)
Description Don't panic. The so-called giant sea scorpion was actually an arthropod — more like a spider, really. It was 10 feet long, had four eyes, and, in addition to swimming, could walk on land. So that's ... pretty horrible.
Last seen 248 million years ago. Phew!
8) Shonisaurus sikanniensis
Description What's not to love about an aquatic reptile the size of a yacht?
Last seen At the end of the Norian stage (204 million years ago).
9) Doedicurus clavicaudatus
Description Imagine a Volkswagen Beetle with teeth and an enormous spiked tail.
Last seen 15,000 years ago.
10) Ceratogaulus rhinoceros
Description It was a rodent. It had twin tusks growing from its nose. And it burrowed. This explains why there were no good golf courses in the Pliocene epoch.
Last seen 5 million years ago.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
The Nature of Human Nature
Michael Shermer's response to the www.edge.org annual question which this year was:
What have you changed your mind about?
When I was a graduate student in experimental psychology, I cut my teeth in a Skinnerian behavioral laboratory. As a behaviorist I believed that human nature was largely a blank slate on which we could impose positive and negative reinforcements (and punishments if necessary) to shape people and society into almost anything we want.
As a young college professor I taught psychology from this perspective and even created a new course on the history and psychology of war, in which I argued that people are by nature peaceful and nonviolent, and that wars were thus a byproduct of corrupt governments and misguided societies.
The data from evolutionary psychology has now convinced me that we evolved a dual set of moral sentiments: within groups we tend to be pro-social and cooperative, but between groups we are tribal and xenophobic.
Archaeological evidence indicates that Paleolithic humans were anything but noble savages, and that civilization has gradually but ineluctably reduced the amount of within-group aggression and between-group violence. And behavior genetics has erased the tabula rasa and replaced it with a highly constrained biological template upon which the environment can act.
I have thus changed my mind about this theory of human nature in its extreme form. Human nature is more evolutionarily determined, more cognitively irrational, and more morally complex than I thought.
More posts on this question at the Edge.org
Michael Shermer is among other things editor of the Skeptic magazine
What have you changed your mind about?
When I was a graduate student in experimental psychology, I cut my teeth in a Skinnerian behavioral laboratory. As a behaviorist I believed that human nature was largely a blank slate on which we could impose positive and negative reinforcements (and punishments if necessary) to shape people and society into almost anything we want.
As a young college professor I taught psychology from this perspective and even created a new course on the history and psychology of war, in which I argued that people are by nature peaceful and nonviolent, and that wars were thus a byproduct of corrupt governments and misguided societies.
The data from evolutionary psychology has now convinced me that we evolved a dual set of moral sentiments: within groups we tend to be pro-social and cooperative, but between groups we are tribal and xenophobic.
Archaeological evidence indicates that Paleolithic humans were anything but noble savages, and that civilization has gradually but ineluctably reduced the amount of within-group aggression and between-group violence. And behavior genetics has erased the tabula rasa and replaced it with a highly constrained biological template upon which the environment can act.
I have thus changed my mind about this theory of human nature in its extreme form. Human nature is more evolutionarily determined, more cognitively irrational, and more morally complex than I thought.
More posts on this question at the Edge.org
Michael Shermer is among other things editor of the Skeptic magazine
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Canada Could Supplant the Middle East as the Primary Supplier of Oil to the US in the Future
World Oil Reserves by Country
Notes:
1. Estimated reserves in billions (10**9) of barrels. (Source: Oil & Gas Journal, January, 2007)
2. Production rate in millions (10**6) of barrels per day (Source: US Energy Information Authority, September, 2007)
3. Reserve life in years, calculated as reserves / annual production. (from above
Country Reserves Production Reserve life 3
(10**9bbl) (10**6 bpd) (years)
Saudi Arabia 260 8.8 81
Canada 179 2.7 182
Iran 136 3.7 101
Iraq 115 2.2 143
Kuwait 99 2.5 108
United Arab Emirates 97 2.5 107
Venezuela 80 2.4 91
Russia 60 9.5 17
Libya 41.5 1.8 63
Nigeria 36.2 2.3 43
United States 21 4.9 12
Mexico 12 3.2 10
Notes:
1. Estimated reserves in billions (10**9) of barrels. (Source: Oil & Gas Journal, January, 2007)
2. Production rate in millions (10**6) of barrels per day (Source: US Energy Information Authority, September, 2007)
3. Reserve life in years, calculated as reserves / annual production. (from above
Monday, January 28, 2008
A "Saudi Arabia" Worth of Oil under Dakotas, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba
The Bakken oil formation is possibly the largest conventional oil discovery in Canada since 1957. If this oil formation plays out toward the higher end of size and recoverability then it will change the geopolitics of oil and the economies of the United States and Canada. If a lot of the oil proves difficult to recover now, new technologies could still drastically improve the percent recoverable. The motivation to pull out another 100 billion barrels would be $9 trillion at todays prices.
Estimates are anywhere from a conservative 25 billion barrels of oil in place, to a high estimate by the United States Geological Survey of 400 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken formation. Not only is the oil plentiful, but it's high quality too, 41 degree light sweet crude. The Bakken formation is a formation of black shale, siltstone, and sandstone. The formation lies beneath the Mississippian formation, Saskatchewan's current source of light sweet crude. The Bakken formation is situated beneath southeastern Saskatchewan, southwestern Manitoba, and North Dakota.
In 2007, EOG Resources out of Houston, Texas reported that a single well it had drilled into an oil-rich layer of shale below Parshall, North Dakota is anticipated to produce 700,000 barrels of oil.The resources of the Bakken Formation are defined by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) as unconventional “continuous-type” oil resources. This means the hydrocarbons within the Bakken have not accumulated into discrete reservoirs of limited areal extent. With new horizontal drilling and completion technology taken into account, the technically recoverable resource base for the entire Bakken Formation is potentially much larger.
Full story from Next Big Future here
Full story from Next Big Future here
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Contact lenses with circuits, lights a possible platform for enhanced vision
Engineers at the University of Washington have manufactured contact lenses that contain electronic circuits and red LEDs.
The circuits don't actually do anything yet—and don’t seem like they will be doing anything anytime soon—but the contacts are a pretty impressive feat of engineering.
In order to embed a metal electronic circuit in a flexible and safe contact lens (the rabbits wore the contacts for 20 minutes with “no adverse effects”), the researchers used layers of metal only a few nanometers thick and manufactured LEDs only a third of a millimeter across. They then sprinkled the system with tiny, self-assembling electrical components.
The researchers hope that the system will soon be able to superimpose images—such as driving control panels and immersive virtual games—over the wearer's view of the outside world.
The press release also claims that people could “surf the Internet on a midair virtual display screen that only they would be able to see”—although the idea of people crossing the street while their entire visual field is filled with porn is a little disconcerting.
Click here for full article from the University of Washington
Friday, January 25, 2008
China to be new driver of world's economy and innovation
A new study of worldwide technological competitiveness suggests China may soon rival the United States as the principal driver of the world’s economy – a position the U.S. has held since the end of World War II. If that happens, it will mark the first time in nearly a century that two nations have competed for leadership as equals.
The study’s indicators predict that China will soon pass the United States in the critical ability to develop basic science and technology, turn those developments into products and services – and then market them to the world. Though China is often seen as just a low-cost producer of manufactured goods, the new “High Tech Indicators” study done by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology clearly shows that the Asian powerhouse has much bigger aspirations.
“For the first time in nearly a century, we see leadership in basic research and the economic ability to pursue the benefits of that research – to create and market products based on research – in more than one place on the planet,” said Nils Newman, co-author of the National Science Foundation-supported study. “Since World War II, the United States has been the main driver of the global economy. Now we have a situation in which technology products are going to be appearing in the marketplace that were not developed or commercialized here. We won’t have had any involvement with them and may not even know they are coming.”
The 2007 statistics show China with a technological standing of 82.8, compared to 76.1 for the United States, 66.8 for Germany and 66.0 for Japan. Just 11 years ago, China’s score was only 22.5. The United States peaked in 1999 with a score of 95.4.
For full story click here
Monday, January 21, 2008
The Singularity Institute
A really interesting website, it goes into some depth regarding the coming singularity.
What is the Singularity?
The Singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence. There are several technologies that are often mentioned as heading in this direction. The most commonly mentioned is probably Artificial Intelligence, but there are others: direct brain-computer interfaces, biological augmentation of the brain, genetic engineering, ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation. Some of these technologies seem likely to arrive much earlier than the others, but there are nonetheless several independent technologies all heading in the direction of the Singularity – several different technologies which, if they reached a threshold level of sophistication, would enable the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.
A future that contains smarter-than-human minds is genuinely different in a way that goes beyond the usual visions of a future filled with bigger and better gadgets. Vernor Vinge originally coined the term "Singularity" in observing that, just as our model of physics breaks down when it tries to model the singularity at the center of a black hole, our model of the world breaks down when it tries to model a future that contains entities smarter than human.
Human intelligence is the foundation of human technology; all technology is ultimately the product of intelligence. If technology can turn around and enhance intelligence, this closes the loop, creating a positive feedback effect. Smarter minds will be more effective at building still smarter minds. This loop appears most clearly in the example of an Artificial Intelligence improving its own source code, but it would also arise, albeit initially on a slower timescale, from humans with direct brain-computer interfaces creating the next generation of brain-computer interfaces, or biologically augmented humans working on an Artificial Intelligence project.
Some of the stronger Singularity technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence and brain-computer interfaces, offer the possibility of faster intelligence as well as smarter intelligence. Ultimately, speeding up intelligence is probably comparatively unimportant next to creating better intelligence; nonetheless the potential differences in speed are worth mentioning because they are so huge. Human neurons operate by sending electrochemical signals that propagate at a top speed of 150 meters per second along the fastest neurons. By comparison, the speed of light is 300,000,000 meters per second, two million times greater. Similarly, most human neurons can spike a maximum of 200 times per second; even this may overstate the information-processing capability of neurons, since most modern theories of neural information-processing call for information to be carried by the frequency of the spike train rather than individual signals. By comparison, speeds in modern computer chips are currently at around 2GHz – a ten millionfold difference – and still increasing exponentially. At the very least it should be physically possible to achieve a million-to-one speedup in thinking, at which rate a subjective year would pass in 31 physical seconds. At this rate the entire subjective timespan from Socrates in ancient Greece to modern-day humanity would pass in under twenty-two hours.
What is the Singularity?
The Singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence. There are several technologies that are often mentioned as heading in this direction. The most commonly mentioned is probably Artificial Intelligence, but there are others: direct brain-computer interfaces, biological augmentation of the brain, genetic engineering, ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation. Some of these technologies seem likely to arrive much earlier than the others, but there are nonetheless several independent technologies all heading in the direction of the Singularity – several different technologies which, if they reached a threshold level of sophistication, would enable the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.
A future that contains smarter-than-human minds is genuinely different in a way that goes beyond the usual visions of a future filled with bigger and better gadgets. Vernor Vinge originally coined the term "Singularity" in observing that, just as our model of physics breaks down when it tries to model the singularity at the center of a black hole, our model of the world breaks down when it tries to model a future that contains entities smarter than human.
Human intelligence is the foundation of human technology; all technology is ultimately the product of intelligence. If technology can turn around and enhance intelligence, this closes the loop, creating a positive feedback effect. Smarter minds will be more effective at building still smarter minds. This loop appears most clearly in the example of an Artificial Intelligence improving its own source code, but it would also arise, albeit initially on a slower timescale, from humans with direct brain-computer interfaces creating the next generation of brain-computer interfaces, or biologically augmented humans working on an Artificial Intelligence project.
Some of the stronger Singularity technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence and brain-computer interfaces, offer the possibility of faster intelligence as well as smarter intelligence. Ultimately, speeding up intelligence is probably comparatively unimportant next to creating better intelligence; nonetheless the potential differences in speed are worth mentioning because they are so huge. Human neurons operate by sending electrochemical signals that propagate at a top speed of 150 meters per second along the fastest neurons. By comparison, the speed of light is 300,000,000 meters per second, two million times greater. Similarly, most human neurons can spike a maximum of 200 times per second; even this may overstate the information-processing capability of neurons, since most modern theories of neural information-processing call for information to be carried by the frequency of the spike train rather than individual signals. By comparison, speeds in modern computer chips are currently at around 2GHz – a ten millionfold difference – and still increasing exponentially. At the very least it should be physically possible to achieve a million-to-one speedup in thinking, at which rate a subjective year would pass in 31 physical seconds. At this rate the entire subjective timespan from Socrates in ancient Greece to modern-day humanity would pass in under twenty-two hours.
Singularity Perspectives from the Next Big Future Blog
Singularity perspectives using hindsight and optimal algorithms: AGI raised by wolves
The technological Singularity is described as creation of [significantly] smarter-than-human intelligence.
Combine faster intelligence, smarter intelligence, and recursively self-improving intelligence, and the result is an event so huge that there are no metaphors left. There's nothing remaining to compare it to. The Singularity is beyond huge, but it can begin with something small. If one smarter-than-human intelligence exists, that mind will find it easier to create still smarter minds.
Click here for the full article
The technological Singularity is described as creation of [significantly] smarter-than-human intelligence.
Combine faster intelligence, smarter intelligence, and recursively self-improving intelligence, and the result is an event so huge that there are no metaphors left. There's nothing remaining to compare it to. The Singularity is beyond huge, but it can begin with something small. If one smarter-than-human intelligence exists, that mind will find it easier to create still smarter minds.
Click here for the full article
Robots Evolve And Learn How to Lie
Robots can evolve to communicate with each other, to help, and even to deceive each other, according to Dario Floreano of the Laboratory of Intelligent Systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.
Click here to view article.
Evolutionary experiments with "artificial" life are truly fascinating to me. I'd love to see this experiment taken to the next step.
Click here to view article.
Evolutionary experiments with "artificial" life are truly fascinating to me. I'd love to see this experiment taken to the next step.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Ahead of the curve careers and megatrends
Marty Nemko of USA Today looks at "6 megatrends" from the perspective of a career seeker. Pretty interesting list, but definitely not comprehensive.
The 6 Megatrends
Growing healthcare demand
The increasingly digitized world
Globalization, especially Asia's ascendancy
The dawn of clinical genomics
Environmentalism
Terrorism
The 6 Megatrends
Growing healthcare demand
The increasingly digitized world
Globalization, especially Asia's ascendancy
The dawn of clinical genomics
Environmentalism
Terrorism
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Invisibility Technology
Interesting new technology:
Using strange new materials not found in nature, physicists can make an object "invisible".
I could definitely see this applied to military aircraft and even ships in a few years to hide from radar. Longer term, it would be pretty interesting to have tanks etc. that are invisible in the visible light spectrum.
Using strange new materials not found in nature, physicists can make an object "invisible".
I could definitely see this applied to military aircraft and even ships in a few years to hide from radar. Longer term, it would be pretty interesting to have tanks etc. that are invisible in the visible light spectrum.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
First post!!
Welcome to my blog! I intend to use this site to post and host discussions about anything that interests me, but especially what THE FUTURE holds in store for us all.
Other topics that I am certain that I will get into are: philosophy, politics, history, cosmology, physics, economics, management, strategy, internet marketing, online publishing, marketing in general, technology, CRM, ERP systems, the internet, computing, artificial intelligence, robotics, judo, mixed martial arts, weapons, soccer, gaming, travel, science fiction, fantasy, alternate history, and historical fiction.
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