Is the semantic web really the next big thing?

I really hate the web 2.0 et al terminology because it doesn't mean anything, and in general I'm not much for bullshit terms.

However, I am very interested in the future direction of the Internet, and recently found an interesting article on this topic from Forbes talking about what the author calls Web 3.0.

In Web 3.0: What's Next After What's Next the author makes his pitch, primarily about the semantic web, and I'm sure that it will lead to a number of speaking engagements for him.

Its an interesting read and a good conversation starter, although I’m not sold that the author has much of a clue about what the future of the web holds.

There is little discussion of ubiquitous or mobile computing for example, but he does dive a bit into software as a service and cloud computing. The author seems to have planted his flag firmly on the top of mount "semantic web", and waxes semi-eloquent on the topic for a number of pages.

I do believe that benefit will be derived from some of the approaches grouped under the semantic web topic, but that they will be felt most in areas where someone has the power to drive compliance with standards. Some of the arguments sound a bit like the next wave of "EDI will change the world" which then became "XML will change the world.

Additionally, some of the concepts fall prey to the dismal science's core tenet - humans are self-interested. People are not altruistic (if you think so, lets talk about utility), therefore they will do things that benefit themselves to the detriment of others.

In this particular context, they will abuse definitions of objects, global taxonomies, and anything else they see fit, unless someone has the power to stop them, or at least make them feel a little pain. This implies also that someone spends time and money monitoring and ensuring compliance, which given the scale of the web, is more than just an enormous undertaking.

So, I'm not so sure that the semantic web will truly change the world, but it is more likely than not that we will continue our steady advance towards SkyNet, at which point we will all either die or spend our days fighting cybernetic terminators. :)